Gaming: ACC - An underdog player's paradise

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wagering on conference games provides opportunities to cash bets in different ways. For gamblers following the Atlantic Coast Conference, there is really only one trend to pay attention to and that's the underdog angle.

In last year's preview, I mentioned how ACC dogs had won at an amazing 60% clip in league play since 2003, with six consecutive winning seasons. Well, last year was more of the same, as favorites failed to come out on the positive side of the ledger for the seventh straight campaign.

In the 48 conference battles, underdogs came through with a 28-19-1 mark, failing to hit the 60% average by less than one percent. Only two teams were above 50%: Clemson (4-2) and Virginia Tech (4-3). Florida State was the least successful squad at 0-5, while Miami finished 2-5, bringing its ATS record to 7-22 since '05.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

6) NC STATE - The Wolfpack went 4-6 ATS last season, and 8-1 to the over in its final nine games. The team is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 contests as a home favorite.

Offense - NC State's offense averaged almost seven points more per game last season compared to '08 but that was largely due to an unbelievable 73% touchdown rate inside the red zone. With major question marks at running back and on the line, look for a regression in points scored this season.

Defense - On the positive side, Nate Irving's return will give a shot in the arm to a defense that allowed over 40 ppg. However, the line loses all four starters and the secondary moves forward without a single upperclassman after finishing last in league play against the pass.

Prediction - This will be another trying season in Raleigh with a below-.500 ATS record. (3-9, 1-7)

5) WAKE FOREST - The Demon Deacons were 5-6 ATS in '09. They are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.

Offense - Replacing Riley Skinner, the school's all-time leading passer, will not be easy. Throw in the fact that the offensive line loses three starters that compiled over 100 career starts, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Defense - Last year's defense allowed an average of eight more ppg than the season prior, but that was with only four returning starters. Look for improved efforts across the board as seven come back to Winston-Salem in 2010.

Prediction - Bet against Wake Forest in almost every game the first half of the season. (4-8, 1-7)

4) BOSTON COLLEGE - The Eagles failed to cover their last four games, ending the season at 6-6 ATS. They are 8-3 ATS as home favorites over the last two years, but 0-10 ATS as road favorites over the last four seasons.

Offense - An exceptional ground attack will always keep Boston College afloat even with ineffective quarterback play. Don't be shocked, however, if the passing game improves, as both the signal-caller and the coaches are now in the second year of the system.

Defense - The defense made great second-half adjustments last season holding opponents to only 23 third-quarter points all year long. With the return of 72% of the club's tackles, along with the expected return of linebacker Mark Herzlich, Boston College will have the number one defense in the division.

Prediction - Bet the Eagles every time they are favored at home, and against them when they are favored on the road. (9-3, 5-3)

3) MARYLAND - The Terrapins finished 4-6-1 ATS last year. They are 3-13 ATS as home favorites, but 10-6 ATS as double-digit underdogs over the last six seasons.

Offense - The change from Chris Turner to Jamarr Robinson (zero interceptions in 85 attempts last year) will be a positive one. In addition, the return of a healthy Da'Rel Scott, the top three receivers, and a more experienced offensive line will all boost the offense to its highest scoring output since '03.

Defense - Last year's defense returned just one of its top five tacklers and the results were extremely unflattering. The unit gave up 31.3 ppg, its highest total since 1997. With seven of the top nine tacklers back in 2010, expect a major resurgence.

Prediction - The Terrapins lost five games last year by a touchdown or less. With better luck, they will be one of the most improved teams in the country both SU and ATS. (8-4, 5-3)

2) CLEMSON - The Tigers were 8-5 ATS last season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.

Offense - The return of quarterback Kyle Parker, who improved his accuracy as the season went along (62% in the final eight Football Bowl Subdivision games after hitting at a 49% in the first five), will keep the Tigers competitive even with the loss of C.J. Spiller.

Defense - Clemson always produces solid defenses regardless of player turnover. The unit has allowed between 16 and 20 ppg each of the last seven seasons, so even with the loss of the leading tackler and both starting cornerbacks don't expect much of a drop off.

Prediction - The Tigers will fly below the radar as most folks might not be aware of the capable replacements at the running back position. Bet them on a weekly basis. (8-4, 5-3)

1) FLORIDA STATE - The Seminoles went 4-8 ATS last year. They are 7-19 ATS off a SU win over the last four seasons and 7-18 ATS as home favorites since '05.

Offense - Florida State's recent troubles had nothing to do with the offense as the Seminoles averaged over 30 points per game for the second straight campaign. Nine starters return so expect another outstanding season.

Defense - This is the area that needed a quick fix and new head coach Jimbo Fisher thinks he found one with the hire of Arizona defensive coordinator Mark Stoops. With better health, especially on the defensive line, look for this unit to turn its fortunes around in a hurry.

Prediction - Even with an eight- or nine-win season, Florida State's ATS mark will not be all that impressive due to high expectations. (8-4, 6-2)

COASTAL DIVISION

6) VIRGINIA - The Cavaliers were 6-5 ATS last year. They went 1-3 ATS as home underdogs in '09 after going 16-5 in Al Groh's first eight years as head coach.

Offense - For a team that finished 118th nationally in total offense, the prospects of improving is slim, particularly when players that accounted for 19 of the 26 touchdowns will not return.

Defense - Virginia came into '08 without a single starter from the defensive line. The '09 team lost 75% of its linebackers. This year's squad returns better depth all around, so don't expect the Cavaliers to get outscored 111-41 in the fourth quarter for a second straight season.

Prediction - New head coach Mike London will raise his team's level of play, so it might not be a bad idea to back the Cavaliers on a weekly basis. (4-8, 1-7)

5) DUKE - The Blue Devils finished 5-4-1 ATS last year. They are 14-8 ATS as road underdogs the last four years but just 3-8 as home underdogs over the last three.

Offense - Despite last season's solid offensive campaign (25 ppg), the Blue Devils scored only three touchdowns inside the red zone in their final six games. They also rushed for just 1.36 ypc in league play. Expect similar production with Sean Renfree taking over at quarterback for Thaddeus Lewis.

Defense - The "D" allowed 212 points over its first nine games for a respectable 23.5 ppg average. However, the unit proceeded to give up 128 points over their final three for a final tally of 28.3 ppg. Look for comparable numbers in 2010.

Prediction - The Blue Devils might not make a big jump in SU play but they should post a third straight above-.500 mark ATS. (4-8, 2-6)

4) GEORGIA TECH - The Yellow Jackets were 8-5-1 ATS last season. They are 16-8 ATS under Paul Johnson.

Offense - If Josh Nesbitt is lost for any significant amount of time, the offense will collapse. And since he runs more than the average quarterback, the likelihood of that taking place is greater than at almost every other school. Also, his two main weapons Jonathan Dwyer and Demaryius Thomas, along with both starting guards, need to be replaced.

Defense - The defense started well under Paul Johnson allowing 10 ppg in the first eight games of 2008, but since then, the "D" has given up an average of 26.5 ppg. Last season, Georgia Tech allowed 4.9 yards per carry, the most in over 20 years. This year's group looks to be similar to '09's in terms of talent and production.

Prediction - After two solid ATS campaigns, look for a drop-off below the .500 mark. (7-5, 4-4)

3) VIRGINIA TECH - The Hokies finished 7-5-1 ATS last year. They are 36-21 ATS off a SU win since '04.

Offense - Not many teams have two running backs that have combined for 2,920 yards and 32 touchdowns in a total of two seasons. In addition, the Hokies also possess a veteran quarterback and a full complement of receivers. Look for them to once again finish first in league play in scoring.

Defense - For as good as the offense is, the defense might be the complete opposite. Last year's unit allowed 3.5 ypc for the first time since 1992. In addition, only three players remain that have started at least 10 games. The Hokies rarely field a lackluster "D", but this year's version could be the exception to the rule.

Prediction - Virginia Tech will lose and fail to cover in week one versus Boise State. (8-4, 5-3)

2) MIAMI-FLORIDA - The Hurricanes were 6-6 ATS last year. They are 14-26 ATS in conference play over the last five years.

Offense - The main objective is to keep quarterback Jacory Harris healthy the entire season. To that end, Orlando Franklin and Joel Figueroa, the two most experienced linemen, will line up at tackle this year, leaving the interior of the line to three players with just seven career starts. The rest of the offense, however, is electric.

Defense - Thirteen of the top 17 tacklers return from a unit that will benefit from another year of experience. This defense has a chance to rival North Carolina's as the top "D" in the division.

Prediction - Keep an eye on the health of the quarterback during fall camp to see if the Hurricanes are worth betting when traveling to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Clemson for their first three FBS contests. (9-3, 6-2)

1) NORTH CAROLINA - The Tar Heels went 5-6 ATS last season but finished the year covering four of their last six games. They are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs the last two years.

Offense - Regardless of which quarterback (T.J. Yates or Bryn Renner) gets the bulk of the action, North Carolina's offense will put up more points than a season ago. The offensive line, which was banged up throughout the entire '09 campaign, is in much better shape heading into 2010.

Defense - The Tar Heels return seven of the eight players that recorded five or more tackles for loss last season and nine of their top 10 tacklers overall. This is one of the premier defenses in the country

Prediction - North Carolina will have its finest ATS season since going 7-4 six years ago. (9-3, 6-2)