Is the wild card hurting the division races?

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before I get started here, let me state that I was a big proponent of the wild card when it was implemented back in 1995, and I am still in favor of it today. In fact, I am on the side of those who wish to expand the playoffs even further in adding another wild card team from each league.

But that, I guess, is a topic for another day.

The wild card has given us competitive races down the stretch in just about all of the 15 years it has been in place. It has kept more teams involved later than they would have been, while making for some compelling baseball heading into the final week, which, let's be honest, is all you can really ask for.

However, if things play out the way I think they will over the final three- plus weeks of the regular season, we could have a problem. The two best races in baseball are shaping up to be the American League East and the National League West, but all four teams could get into the playoffs anyway thanks to the wild card.

The juice has been taken out of the division races, especially in the AL, where it is a foregone conclusion that the loser between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East is going to get in. They are 1-2 for the best record in baseball and will likely trade the top spot a number of times over the next couple of weeks.

How awesome would that race have been 16 years ago, had they both been fighting for one spot?

While it may not be as pronounced in the NL, I still see the wild card going to either San Diego or San Francisco. Of course, the division race between them is also going to come down to the final weekend, but again, who cares, knowing they both could get in anyway?

So where is the intrigue going to be down the stretch?

I know the National League East is tight at the moment, but the Phillies are now healthy and with the three pitchers atop that rotation, that division is over. Don't be surprised when the season ends on October 3rd and the Phils are the National League leader with the biggest divisional lead.

Atlanta, which fell a half-game back in the NL East on Tuesday, leads the Wild Card chase by a game over the San Francisco Giants. I don't like the way the Braves have looked over the last month, though, and I think them relinquishing their division lead on Tuesday was just the beginning. I see a free-fall coming.

The American League Central could come down to the wire - because it does every year - and give us some excitement, but in reality all the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox are battling for is the right to get eliminated by either the Yankees or Rays in the first round.

Is there anyone out there who doesn't think the Rays or Yanks will be coming out of the AL?

Forget an AL West that's been over since the All-Star break, despite the fact that the Rangers are playing as awful as any team in the league at the moment. The Reds' six-game lead on the Cardinals should also hold up in the National League, given who they have to play the rest of the way.

I would love to see the Cards get involved in the wild card mix, because if they get into the playoffs I have a feeling they could be scary. As I write this they sit 5 1/2 back, though only four back in the loss column.

There is one team, though, that can throw a wrench into all of this and that team is the Ghost of Septembers Past - the Colorado Rockies, who are in the midst of another late-season surge and have climbed within 4 1/2 games of both the NL West and the wild card.

That said, Colorado has been so inconsistent this season, I just can't envision them making a run here. Then again, I did not think they would rip off 13 wins in their last 14 games to force a one-game playoff in 2007 and definitely did not think they had another run in them in June of last season when they were 12 games under .500 and 15 1/2 games out of first place.

By the way, you may disregard all this when in a couple of weeks I am writing over the last weekend of the season about the wild free-for-all that is going to be taking place for the NL Wild Card.

I hope that is the case, but I just don't see it playing out like that.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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