Johnson's PGA snafu was avoidable

Golf Betting Lines

08/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - What happened to Dustin Johnson on Sunday at the PGA Championship was cruel, vicious, heartbreaking and borderline tragic.

"Joke."

"Terrible for golf."

Tim Rosaforte of the Golf Channel reported someone yelled "you were robbed" to Johnson in the parking lot.

These are things I had texted to me or read, but know what else it was?

Avoidable.

I'm a human being, so I'm sensitive to what happened. Johnson thought he was in a playoff for his first major championship and it was ripped away from him before he could even get started.

We all know what happened. Johnson drove into a patch of sand right of the fairway at 18 with a one-shot lead. He grounded his club in the sand, made bogey, thought he was in a playoff, then had his guts torn out.

There are so many questions that spring to mind, so let's handle them, but sadly the outcome is always the same.

First, was it a bunker or not? Well the sandy area certainly didn't look any bigger than the soul patch under Johnson's lip, so it's totally understandable to think it wasn't a bunker. I didn't. Neither did Johnson, obviously.

If you don't think it's a bunker, that's an opinion that is not shared by the PGA of America. They designated it a bunker based on how the course was designed. Since the sandy strip had that designation, there really can't be a question as to whether or not Johnson deserved the two-stroke penalty. He clearly grounded his club and never denied it afterwards.

With the PGA Championship returning to Whistling Straits in five years, here's a free piece of advice for the PGA of America - do something about the bunkers. Yes, you posted rules that said where and what bunkers were, but then didn't enforce them at all. Gallery members were standing in said areas. CBS even showed a kid playing in one. If they are outside the ropes, but still bunkers, they need to be treated as such. Poor job on that front by the officials and marshals.

As semi-understandable as it is to think that wasn't a bunker, Johnson made some huge oversights. For one, he should've known that area was a bunker if it was posted on the rules sheet, which was posted in the locker room and other places. Ignorance is no defense.

It was downright alarming to hear how many players defended Johnson based on the fact they didn't know the rules or check the sheet. Whistling Straits isn't a regular tour stop, so why wouldn't players check local rules since they haven't been here in six years? Do you think Tiger Woods wouldn't have checked the sheet or known the rules? Of course he would know that.

Johnson wasn't here six years ago, but this is the part that I'll never understand or forgive. He flat-out didn't know the rules and that's inexcusable.

Next, with a major title on the line on the 72nd hole, it's understandable that Johnson had a lot of thoughts swimming in his noodle. While standing over his ball that was clearly in sand, why didn't Johnson think to ask an official if it was a bunker? Not to oversimplify this whole experience, but at the end of the day, Johnson was standing over a ball that was in some form of sand.

Why didn't the walking rules official stop Johnson before he got in there and grounded the club? There are several explanations for this. Sadly, maybe the official didn't even know the rule.

Secondly, Mark Wilson, one of the co-chairmen of rules committee brought up a logistical explanation.

"David (Price) certainly would have jumped in, under the circumstances with the many people over there, it was hard," said Wilson, referring to the large gallery around Johnson. "If the walking official can prevent a breach of the rules, he certainly will, but under the circumstances it was hard enough to get the player over there and again if it's that hard to get the player over there, all the rules official is going to be doing is hovering over the player and they're really not trying to encourage that. We're not trying to tell the players that, hey, you've been assigned a walking official because we're going to scrutinize every rule."

I hate hypotheticals almost as much as I hate black cherry soda, but what if the walking official goes up to Johnson and says, "Be careful, this may be a bunker, but I'm not sure." Now, Johnson has tons of thoughts about what to do with a one-shot lead on the 72nd hole of a major. That's a nightmare scenario and probably great fodder for a different column because an official should never be the story or interject himself or herself into things like that.

Plus, I don't think it's a rules official's place to inform a guy he might be breaking a rule when the guy should've known it for himself.

Golf, perhaps more than any other sport, is a stickler for rules. Ever heard that golf is a gentleman's game and that it polices itself? Of course you have. Whether or not you think the rule was dumb or the interpretation was flawed, what Johnson did was illegal under the rules as set forth by the rules committee.

Sadly, that rules infraction comes with a penalty. That penalty came at a horrible time, but it was the right call.

As a human being with a beating heart, I felt bad for Johnson. It was cruel, vicious, heartbreaking and tragic.

Oh, and completely avoidable.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Super Bowl XLIV Odds

Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.

Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.

Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds

With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.

That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.

Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.

After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.

The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).

To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.

NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV

New England Patriots 8/1

Dallas Cowboys 9/1

New York Giants 10/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1

Indianapolis Colts 12/1

San Diego Chargers 12/1

Baltimore Ravens 14/1

Tennessee Titans 16/1

Carolina Panthers 18/1

Philadelphia Eagles 18/1

New Orleans Saints 20/1

Atlanta Falcons 25/1

Denver Broncos 25/1

Green Bay Packers 25/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1

Minnesota Vikings 25/1

New York Jets 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1

Chicago BearS 30/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1

Buffalo Bills 35/1

Houston TexaNS 35/1

Miami Dolphins 35/1

Washington Redskins 35/1

Seattle SeahawkS 50/1

Cleveland Browns 55/1

Cincinnati Bengals 60/1

San Francisco 49ers 60/1

Oakland Raiders 75/1

St. Louis Rams 75/1

Detroit Lions 100/1

Kansas City Chiefs 100/1

Odds as of: 2/2/09

Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds

To visit this online sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.